Patriot Games - Analyzing the Patriot League

Thoughts and analysis on the Patriot League, with the focus on basketball and football, plus a little soccer and whatever else catches my eye. The Patriot League consists of American, Army, Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh, and Navy, and is dedicated to the true student-athlete.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

Assists matter. It's not terribly surprising to see which teams are at the top of the Patriot League when it comes to assists. Here are the leaders in percentage of baskets coming off of an assist:

Holy Cross 65.6%
Bucknell 62.5%
Lehigh 58.9%
American 58.0%
Lafayette 55.9%
Navy 55.3%
Colgate 54.0%
Army 52.3%

If you flip-flopped Bucknell/Holy Cross and Colgate/Navy, this stat would exactly mirror the final league standings. These percentages would probably be more meaningful if I took out baskets scored on offensive rebounds but that would take more time than I have. I will note, however, that the top offensive rebounding team in the league was Bucknell, followed by American, which may have some effect on the percentage of assisted baskets. Army, by the way, was a distant 8th in the offensive rebounding category, which makes their low percentage of assisted baskets look even worse.

Perhaps more interesting is the ratio of assists to turnovers for each team:

Holy Cross .99
Bucknell .96
Lehigh .94
American .86
Lafayette .75
Colgate .71
Navy .69
Army .63

Except for Bucknell and Holy Cross being transposed, this stat tracks the 2005-06 PL standings exactly. It also mirrors the standings in that there was a big gap between the first and second division last year. Army again has a woeful percentage which, when combined with weak rebounding, goes a long way in explaining their record.

Assists per Minute.....As far as individuals go, here are the top returning playmakers, ranked by assists per minute (again adjusted for Pomeroy's pace of play) , with their minutes played shown first followed by the assists:

1 Lekavicius, Linas... Amer / 287 / 6.0
2 Thomas, Torey....... HC / 510 / 5.9
3 Badmus, Abe......... Buck / 403 / 5.5
4 Doherty prev yr...... HC / 296 / 5.2
5 Kina, Kaleo............ Navy / 342 / 4.3
6 Mercer, Derrick.... Amer / 497 / 4.3
7 Sinning, Cory....... Army / 378 / 3.7
8 Brown, Andrew....... Laf / 428 / 3.6
9 Johnson, Corey...... Navy / 472 / 3.5
10 Bell, Matt............. Army / 427 / 3.1
11 Betley, Matt............. Laf / 291 / 3.1
12 Checovich, Todd..... Colg / 244 / 3.1
13 Eitutavicius, A..... Amer / 309 / 3.0
14 Abdullah, Bilal......... Laf / 374 / 3.0
15 Olivero, Jose....... Lehigh / 442 / 2.9
16 Bates, Corban....... Army / 356 / 2.6
17 Chones, Kyle........... Colg / 305 / 2.4
18 Ingram, Andre....... Amer / 468 / 2.4
19 Simon, Jon................ Colg / 407 / 2.3
20 Neptune, Kyle....... Lehigh / 392 / 2.3
21 Mastropaolo, Darren. Buck / 246 / 2.2
22 Brown, Donald........... Buck / 326 / 2.0
23 Jackson, Marshall... Army / 301 / 2.0
24 Simmons, Keith........... HC / 448 / 1.9
25 Clifford, Tim................ HC / 336 / 1.8
26 Griffin, John............. Buck / 213 / 1.8
27 Vegotsky, Jason....... Buck / 156 / 1.7
28 Sprink, Greg........... Navy / 463 / 1.7
29 Cunningham, Colin..... HC / 162 / 1.7
30 Vander Baan Alex.... HC / 398 / 1.7
31 Lay, Travis............ Amer / 118 / 1.6
32 Mgebroff, Jason.... Lehigh / 140 / 1.6
33 Detmer, Ted.............. Laf / 234 / 1.5
34 Billbe, Brayden..... Amer / 319 / 1.5
35 Brigham, Bryce...... Navy / 220 / 1.4
36 Chones, Kendall....... Colg / 309 / 1.4
37 Gentile, Dan............. Colg / 248 / 1.3
38 Brewer, Kenny....... Army / 127 / 1.3
39 Daniels, Marc............ Colg / 288 / 1.1
40 McNaughton, Chris.. Buck / 364 / 1.1

A few things caught my eye about this stat:

1. Lekavicius, Thomas, and Badmus are significantly in front among the returnees.

2. I only saw American play twice but I'm a bit surprised to see Lekavicius ahead of Mercer by a significant margin.

3. The leader in assists per minute for those players taller than 6'5" is the sometimes underrated Darren Mastropaolo of Bucknell. Tim Clifford is next among the big guys.


In my post the other day, we saw that Lehigh has lost a lot in the rebounding category. Well, they've lost even more in the area of assists, which is why I think the key to the Mountain Hawks' season is what kind of play they get at PG from frosh Marquis Webb (or possibly from frosh Matt Shamis). If Olivero has to play a lot of PG, I think they're in trouble. Anyway, here are the assists per 40 minutes for those who are gone:

1 Gilfillan, Mitch.... Lehigh / 384 / 7.2
2 Hamilton, Kevin...... HC / 512 / 4.6
3 Reed, Alvin............ Colg / 355 / 4.5
4 Lee, Charles........... Buck / 461 / 3.8
5 Bettencourt, Kevin.. Buck / 440 / 3.5
6 Knight, Joe......... Lehigh / 400 / 2.9
7 Capusan, Andrei..... Laf / 360 / 2.5
8 Betley, Pat................ Laf / 339 / 2.1
9 Fannin, Matt........ Navy / 301 / 2.1
10 Hooper, David....... Navy / 141 / 1.6

There's the underrated Mitch Gilfillan leading the pack, not only ahead of Hamilton, but also well ahead of any returnee. The top six on this list will all be missed a lot by their respective teams when it comes to setting up their teammates.

Assist to Turnover Ratio.....Gilfillan not only had a high number of assists but he also had the league's best ratio of assists to turnovers - not always an easy double to pull off. Here are the top returnees in this category, followed by the players who hopefully graduated:

1 Thomas, Torey......... HC / 510 / 2.0
2 Doherty prev yr........ HC / 296 / 1.9
3 Lekavicius, Linas... Amer / 287 / 1.8
4 Mercer, Derrick..... Amer / 497 / 1.6
5 Badmus, Abe......... Buck / 403 / 1.6
6 Brigham, Bryce...... Navy / 220 / 1.3
7 Griffin, John............ Buck / 213 / 1.2
8 Sinning, Cory.......... Army / 378 / 1.1
9 Chones, Kyle............ Colg / 305 / 1.1
10 Betley, Matt............. Laf / 291 / 1.1
11 Bates, Corban....... Army / 356 / 1.1
12 Gourlay, John....... Lehigh / 98 / 1.0
13 Bell, Matt............... Army / 427 / 1.0
14 Simon, Jon............... Colg / 407 / 0.9
15 Ingram, Andre...... Amer / 468 / 0.9
16 Checovich, Todd..... Colg / 244 / 0.9
17 Johnson, Corey...... Navy / 472 / 0.9
18 Brown, Andrew........ Laf / 428 / 0.9
19 Simmons, Keith........ HC / 448 / 0.9
20 Eitutavicius, A...... Amer / 309 / 0.9
21 Mastropaolo, D....... Buck / 246 / 0.8
22 Vander Baan, Alex.... HC / 398 / 0.8
23 Olivero, Jose....... Lehigh / 442 / 0.8
24 Abdullah, Bilal........... Laf / 374 / 0.8
25 Kina, Kaleo............. Navy / 342 / 0.8

Graduates:

1 Gilfillan, Mitch.... Lehigh / 384 / 2.4
2 Bettencourt, Kevin.. Buck / 440 / 2.0
3 Lee, Charles........ Buck / 461 / 1.2
4 Knight, Joe......... Lehigh / 400 / 1.1
5 Hamilton, Kevin..... HC / 512 / 1.1
6 Reed, Alvin......... Colg / 355 / 1.0
7 Betley, Pat......... Laf / 339 / 1.0

It's interesting that, of the returnees, only four (plus Doherty) had what I would consider a good ratio of assists to turnovers: Thomas, Lekavicius, Mercer, and Badmus. Looks like Jeff Jones' coaching must be paying off when it comes to AU ballhandling! And Gilfillan, along with Bettencourt easily led the list of graduates. BTW, it's not a good sign for Navy that both of the guys who they play at the point (Kina and Johnson) are not true PG's and that both of them had more turnovers than assists.

Six teams return their starting PG's this year plus an experienced backup : Bucknell (Badmus/Griffin), Holy Cross (Thomas/Doherty), American (Mercer/Lekivicius), Lafayette (Andrew Brown/Harley), Navy (Kina/Johnson), and Army (Sinning/Bell). Over the course of the season, it will be an interesting theme to see the calibre of PG play generated by Hall and Shamis for Lehigh and by Colgate's Jon Simon (who played some point last year as well as 2G). This position may well determine if these two teams, who have been generally picked for the middle of the pack, are contenders or pretenders.

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