Effect of Wins and Schedule on the RPI: Many fans have a basic knowledge of how the RPI works - 25% weight to a team's own W-L percentage (adjusted for home/road), plus 50% weight to its opponent's W-L percentage, plus 25% weight to its opponents' opponents' W-L percentage. In the early part of the season, however, it's easy to lose sight of how volatile this ranking can be and how much it can change due to one or two results.
For example, let's look at tonight's Holy Cross vs Duke game. HC at present is ranked 73rd in RPI with a .5687 RPI. Its strength of schedule is ranked #183. How will these two rankings be affected by the game in Cameron tonight?
The Crusaders will see a significant boost in their RPI just by walking in the door. Should they lose, my quick calculation indicates their new RPI ranking will be approximately #63, with the actual RPI going up to about .5773. (Note that it is impossible to predict the exact effect because three previous HC opponents have games tonight, and also many of their opponents' opponents play as well, so 75% of their RPI will change due to these games.) This positive effect will be the same if they lose by one point or 41.
Should they pull off a major upset, the Crusader RPI ranking would likely rise to about #37, with an RPI of about .6031. This sort of variability in the RPI is very much a fact of life this early in the year.
As for strength of schedule (SOS hereafter), the current Crusader SOS ranking is #183. By tomorrow morning, my quick calculation indicates it will rise to approximately #128, win or lose. Again, remember that the wins/losses achieved tonight by past HC opponents (and their opponents) will also affect the SOS. One example of the effect of opponents' games is that the HC SOS ranking as of Sunday was #157. It fell to #183 in two days due to losses by Syracuse, Yale, Fairfield, and William & Mary.
Another example of how a big game early in the year can have a big RPI effect can be seen in Bucknell's experience with a couple of big games last year. When the Bison lost to Villanova, their SOS jumped from #45 to #17. And after taking a beating from Duke in early January, the RPI ranking went from #13 to #8 while the SOS rose from 19th to 14th. Sadly, exactly one month later, after winning nine games in a row, their SOS plummeted to #177, thanks to some awful ooc records run up by many of the other PL teams.
The good news for Holy Cross, Bucknell, and other league members is that the Patriot League ooc record this year is MUCH better than last year. Whereas the 2005-06 ooc D1 record for the league was 40-58 (.408) - .372 excluding Bucknell - this year's D1 record thus far is a lofty 37-28 (.569), even with Bucknell showing only a 3-5 record. The end result of this significant improvement is that the top teams in the league this year will not have to watch their RPI's go into a state of free-fall when they get into league play. At least not if they can win these games, which will be a much more difficult proposition than in past years.
For example, let's look at tonight's Holy Cross vs Duke game. HC at present is ranked 73rd in RPI with a .5687 RPI. Its strength of schedule is ranked #183. How will these two rankings be affected by the game in Cameron tonight?
The Crusaders will see a significant boost in their RPI just by walking in the door. Should they lose, my quick calculation indicates their new RPI ranking will be approximately #63, with the actual RPI going up to about .5773. (Note that it is impossible to predict the exact effect because three previous HC opponents have games tonight, and also many of their opponents' opponents play as well, so 75% of their RPI will change due to these games.) This positive effect will be the same if they lose by one point or 41.
Should they pull off a major upset, the Crusader RPI ranking would likely rise to about #37, with an RPI of about .6031. This sort of variability in the RPI is very much a fact of life this early in the year.
As for strength of schedule (SOS hereafter), the current Crusader SOS ranking is #183. By tomorrow morning, my quick calculation indicates it will rise to approximately #128, win or lose. Again, remember that the wins/losses achieved tonight by past HC opponents (and their opponents) will also affect the SOS. One example of the effect of opponents' games is that the HC SOS ranking as of Sunday was #157. It fell to #183 in two days due to losses by Syracuse, Yale, Fairfield, and William & Mary.
Another example of how a big game early in the year can have a big RPI effect can be seen in Bucknell's experience with a couple of big games last year. When the Bison lost to Villanova, their SOS jumped from #45 to #17. And after taking a beating from Duke in early January, the RPI ranking went from #13 to #8 while the SOS rose from 19th to 14th. Sadly, exactly one month later, after winning nine games in a row, their SOS plummeted to #177, thanks to some awful ooc records run up by many of the other PL teams.
The good news for Holy Cross, Bucknell, and other league members is that the Patriot League ooc record this year is MUCH better than last year. Whereas the 2005-06 ooc D1 record for the league was 40-58 (.408) - .372 excluding Bucknell - this year's D1 record thus far is a lofty 37-28 (.569), even with Bucknell showing only a 3-5 record. The end result of this significant improvement is that the top teams in the league this year will not have to watch their RPI's go into a state of free-fall when they get into league play. At least not if they can win these games, which will be a much more difficult proposition than in past years.
posted by bison137 | 10:29 AM
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